出刊年月/Date of Publishing

2026.09

所屬卷期/Vol. & No.   第56卷第3期 Vol. 56, No. 3

類型/Type                 研究論文 Research Article

篇名/Title
全球AI治理的半導體出口管制問題：從CoCom、瓦聖納協議到美國單邊主義之制度變遷與挑戰
Semiconductor Export Controls in Global AI Governance: Institutional Change and Challenges from CoCom and Wassenaar Arrangement to U.S. Unilateralism

作者/Author
林勤富 Ching-Fu Lin

頁碼/Pagination
pp. 391-466

摘要
AI技術快速發展與美中競爭白熱化，使高階晶片成為國家安全與地緣政治競爭的核心資產。戰後多邊出口管制體系從冷戰時期圍堵蘇聯的CoCom，演變為蘇聯解體後聚焦防擴散的瓦聖納協議，然而後者的制度設計如共識決要求及成員利益衝突，在AI與半導體技術快速變革的時代逐漸失靈。正值美國以國家安全為由復行單邊主義出口管制，且新多邊架構之倡議也面臨侷限之際，本文深入分析從CoCom到瓦聖納協議乃至於美國單邊措施對多邊體系之影響，並從我國半導體供應鏈關鍵角色出發，重思民主友盟協調管制政策之取徑，試圖初探地緣政治變革下的跨國合作取徑。

Abstract
Rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and intensifying U.S.-China competition have elevated advanced semiconductors to core assets in national security and geopolitical rivalry. The postwar multilateral export control regime evolved from CoCom—designed to contain the Soviet Union during the Cold War—to the Wassenaar Arrangement, which emerged after the Soviet collapse with a focus on nonproliferation. However, the latter’s institutional design, charac-terized by consensus-based decision-making and conflicting member interests, has gradually faltered in an era of rapid transformation in AI and semiconductor technologies. Meanwhile, the United States has reverted to unilateralism in export controls in the name of national security, and proposals for new multilateral frameworks likewise face significant limitations. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution from CoCom to the Wassenaar Arrangement and the impact of U.S. unilateral measures on the multilateral system. Drawing on Taiwan’s pivotal role in the semiconductor supply chain, it reconceptualizes pathways for coordinating export control policies among democratic allies and explores potential approaches to transnational cooperation amid geopolitical transformation.

關鍵字/Key Word
半導體、晶片戰爭、中美對抗、出口管制、AI治理
semiconductor, chip war, US-China rivalry, export control, AI governance

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DOI
https://doi.org/10.7015/JEAS.202609_56(3).0002

學門分類/Subject
法學 Law